Smart Baseball by Keith Law

Last updated: Aug 25, 2023

Summary of Smart Baseball by Keith Law

1. The Value of On-Base Percentage

One of the key takeaways from Smart Baseball is the importance of on-base percentage (OBP) as a measure of a player's offensive value. Law argues that OBP is a more accurate indicator of a player's ability to contribute to scoring runs than traditional statistics like batting average. He explains that getting on base is the first step towards scoring runs, and players who consistently reach base are more likely to contribute to their team's success.

Law provides several examples and statistical analyses to support his argument. He highlights players who have high OBP but low batting average, showing that their ability to draw walks and get on base compensates for their lack of hits. He also compares the offensive contributions of players with high OBP to those with high batting average, demonstrating that OBP is a better predictor of run production. This insight can be actionable for both players and teams, as it emphasizes the importance of developing a patient approach at the plate and valuing players who consistently reach base.

2. The Flaws of Traditional Pitcher Evaluation

Another interesting takeaway from Smart Baseball is the critique of traditional pitcher evaluation metrics, such as wins and earned run average (ERA). Law argues that these statistics can be misleading and fail to accurately assess a pitcher's performance. He suggests alternative metrics, such as Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) and Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP), which focus on the factors a pitcher can control, such as strikeouts, walks, and home runs allowed.

Law explains that traditional metrics like wins are heavily influenced by factors outside of a pitcher's control, such as run support from their team. Similarly, ERA can be skewed by factors like defensive errors or ballpark effects. By focusing on metrics that isolate a pitcher's individual performance, Law argues that a more accurate evaluation can be made. This insight can be valuable for teams and scouts when assessing pitchers, as it encourages a shift towards more advanced and nuanced metrics that provide a clearer picture of a pitcher's true abilities.

3. The Impact of Defensive Shifts

Smart Baseball also delves into the impact of defensive shifts on the game. Law explains how teams have increasingly employed defensive shifts to counteract hitters' tendencies, particularly against left-handed pull hitters. He provides data and analysis to show that defensive shifts have been effective in reducing the success of pull hitters, leading to a decrease in offensive production.

Law argues that this shift in defensive strategy has implications for hitters, as they need to adjust their approach to counteract the shifts. He suggests that hitters should focus on hitting the ball to all fields and developing a more well-rounded offensive game to combat the defensive shifts. This insight can be actionable for both hitters and teams, as it highlights the need for adaptability and strategic thinking in response to evolving defensive strategies.

4. The Value of Defensive Metrics

Smart Baseball also emphasizes the importance of defensive metrics in evaluating players' overall contributions. Law argues that traditional defensive statistics, such as errors and fielding percentage, are inadequate measures of a player's defensive abilities. He introduces advanced defensive metrics, such as Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) and Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), which provide a more comprehensive assessment of a player's defensive value.

Law explains how these advanced metrics take into account factors like range, arm strength, and positioning to provide a more accurate evaluation of a player's defensive contributions. He provides examples of players who may not have impressive traditional defensive statistics but excel in advanced metrics, highlighting the limitations of relying solely on traditional measures. This insight can be valuable for teams and scouts when evaluating players, as it emphasizes the need to consider advanced defensive metrics to fully assess a player's defensive abilities.

5. The Impact of Ballpark Factors

Smart Baseball also explores the impact of ballpark factors on player performance. Law argues that traditional statistics can be influenced by the dimensions and characteristics of a player's home ballpark, leading to misleading evaluations. He suggests using park-adjusted metrics, such as Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+), to account for these factors and provide a more accurate assessment of a player's offensive contributions.

Law provides examples of players who may have inflated statistics due to playing in hitter-friendly ballparks or suppressed statistics due to playing in pitcher-friendly ballparks. He argues that park-adjusted metrics allow for fairer comparisons across different ballparks and provide a more accurate representation of a player's offensive abilities. This insight can be actionable for teams and scouts when evaluating players, as it encourages the use of park-adjusted metrics to account for the impact of ballpark factors.

6. The Importance of Pitch Framing

Smart Baseball highlights the importance of pitch framing in evaluating catchers' defensive abilities. Law explains how catchers who excel at framing pitches can significantly impact the outcome of a game by turning borderline pitches into strikes. He introduces metrics like Framing Runs Above Average (FRAA) to quantify the value of pitch framing.

Law argues that pitch framing is an often overlooked skill that can have a significant impact on a team's success. He provides examples of catchers who may not excel in traditional defensive statistics but contribute significantly through their pitch framing abilities. This insight can be valuable for teams and scouts when evaluating catchers, as it emphasizes the need to consider pitch framing as a crucial aspect of a catcher's defensive value.

7. The Value of Base Running

Smart Baseball also emphasizes the importance of base running in a player's overall value. Law argues that traditional base running statistics, such as stolen bases, fail to capture the full impact of a player's base running abilities. He introduces metrics like Base Running Runs (BsR) and Ultimate Base Running (UBR) to provide a more comprehensive assessment of a player's base running contributions.

Law explains how base running can impact a team's ability to score runs and win games. He provides examples of players who may not excel in traditional offensive statistics but contribute significantly through their base running abilities. This insight can be actionable for teams and scouts when evaluating players, as it emphasizes the need to consider base running as a valuable aspect of a player's overall contribution.

8. The Evolution of Analytics in Baseball

Smart Baseball also provides insights into the evolution of analytics in baseball and its impact on the game. Law discusses how teams have increasingly embraced advanced metrics and statistical analysis to gain a competitive edge. He highlights the role of data-driven decision-making in player evaluation, game strategy, and roster construction.

Law explains how analytics have revolutionized the way teams approach the game, leading to a greater emphasis on efficiency, value, and maximizing run production. He provides examples of teams that have successfully integrated analytics into their decision-making processes and achieved success on the field. This insight can be valuable for teams, players, and fans, as it highlights the growing importance of analytics in shaping the future of baseball.

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